One of the first things to understand about buying stocks is that what you buy is in some ways a function of who you are. If you're an optimist, growth investing might be for you. Long on patience? Value investing may be the better fit.
Individual investors generally fall into one of three categories: growth investors, value investors or dividend investors.
Growth
A stock's price often reflects how profitable investors think a company will be in the future. So most investors follow a growth strategy, which means that they look for companies with strong prospects for growing their sales and earnings. Definitions vary, but stocks expected to increase their sales (and their net income) from one year to the next by at least 15% generally qualify as growth stocks.
Value
Value investors follow a different path. They believe that the broader stock market always overreacts to news about a company. They seek out formerly hot stocks that have stumbled and whose share prices are at bargain levels.
Being cheap, though, isn't enough by itself. Value investors try to zero in on stocks that were beaten down due to temporary problems that can be fixed.
Dividends
Dividend investors buy stocks that pay a cash dividend based on the number of shares you own, usually on a quarterly basis. Unlike value and growth investors, who only make money when they sell, dividend investors get paid while they hold the stock.
Thus, dividend investors buy stocks as much for the income as they do for capital appreciation (which is what you get when you sell a stock at a higher price than you paid for it). Dividend investors look for financially solid companies with the wherewithal to continue paying their dividends, regardless of what's happening in the economy.
Putting a price on a stock
How do you know whether a stock is a value or priced for growth? Most investors rely on certain ratios that compare a stock's price to the underlying company's results.
The most commonly used valuation ratios are:
Price-to-earnings (P/E): This is a company's stock price divided by how much it earns per share over 12 months (expressed as earnings-per-share, or EPS). Most often, the EPS used is the most recent 12 months' earnings. Another way to calculate P/E is by using the consensus of Wall Street analysts' forecasts for a company's earnings in the current fiscal year. P/E is the most widely used valuation gauge.
Price-to-sales (P/S): A company's stock price divided by the most recent 12 months' sales-per-share. Some investors favor P/S over P/E because sales don’t vary as much as earnings from quarter to quarter. Another advantage is that you can calculate P/S, but not P/E, when a company loses money in a quarterly or annual reporting period.
Price-to-book (P/B): Also called book value, this is a company's assets minus its liabilities. A P/B ratio divides a company's stock price by its book value per share. Value investors tend to favor P/B.
There is no universal agreement on ratio values that define value or growth. Here’s my simplified take.
Defining value and growth
Ratio Value Growth Overpriced Growth
P/E Less than 15 More than 20 More than 50
P/S Less than 2.5 More than 3 More than 10
P/B Less than 3 More than 5 More than 15
Stocks with valuations in the gaps between the value and growth definitions -- say, a P/E of 18 and a P/B of 4 -- could be in either category, depending on the circumstances. Valuations in the Overpriced Growth column define stocks that many investors would consider overpriced.
But remember, your research doesn't end with these ratios. Figuring out whether a stock is worth buying is another task. A stock may be a value in terms of price, but its price may be depressed because something is seriously wrong. These ratios can help you understand whether a company's shares are cheap or expensive. If they are cheap, and you've done your work trying to find out why, then they may be attractive as a buy.
Showing posts with label investing. Show all posts
Showing posts with label investing. Show all posts
2009-03-13
The 5 Biggest Stock Market Myths One Should Know
When fiascos like the Enron bankruptcy, auditing scandals and analysts' conflict of interest occur, investor confidence can be at an all-time low. Many investors are wonder whether or not investing in stocks is worth all the hassle. At the same time, however, it's important to keep a realistic view of the stock market. Regardless of the real problems, common myths about the stock market often arise. Here we go over these myths in order to bust them.
1) Investing in stocks is just like gambling.
This reasoning causes many people to shy away from the stock market. To understand why investing in stocks is inherently different from gambling, we need to review what it means to buy stocks. A share of common stock is ownership in a company. It entitles the holder to a claim on assets as well as a fraction of the profits that the company generates. Too often, investors think of shares as simply a trading vehicle, and they forget that stock represents the ownership of a company.
In the stock market, investors are constantly trying to assess the profit that will be left over for shareholders. This is why stock prices fluctuate. The outlook for business conditions is always changing, and so are the future earnings of a company.
Assessing the value of a company isn't an easy practice. There are so many variables involved that the short-term price movements appear to be random (academics call this the Random Walk Theory); however, over the long term, a company is only worth the present value of the profits it will make. In the short term a company can survive without profits because of the expectations of future earnings, but no company can fool investors forever - eventually a company's stock price can be expected to show the true value of the firm.
Gambling, on the contrary, is a zero-sum game. It merely takes money from a loser and gives it to a winner. No value is ever created. By investing, we increase the overall wealth of an economy. As companies compete, they increase productivity and develop products that can make our lives better. Don't confuse investing and creating wealth with gambling's zero-sum game.
2) The stock market is an exclusive club in which only brokers and rich people make money.
Below is a chart of Wal-Mart from 1997 to 2000. We've circled every time the stock chart hit resistance to reaching a new high. Those investors who were waiting for the stock to come back to earth would missed out on a return of 500% or more. What's behind the stock? It's the company! Wal-Mart is another example of an excellent company that has dominated its industry by being innovative and creating value for both shareholders and customers.
We're not trying to tell you that stocks never undergo a correction. The point is that the stock price is a reflection of the company. If you find a great firm run by excellent managers, there is no reason the stock won't keep on going up.
5) Having just a little knowledge, because it is better than none, is enough to invest in the stock market.
Knowing something is generally better than nothing, but it is crucial in the stock market that individual investors have a clear understanding of what they are doing with their money. It's those investors who really do their homework that succeed.
Don't fret, if you don't have the time to fully understand what to do with your money, then having an advisor is not a bad thing. The cost of investing in something that you do not fully understand far outweighs the cost of using an investment advisor.
Conclusion
Forgive us for ending with more investing clichés, but there is another old adage that is very much worth repeating: "What's obvious is obviously wrong." This means that knowing a little bit will only have you following the crowd like a lemming. Like anything worth anything, successful investing takes hard work and effort. A partially informed investor is about as effective as a partially informed surgeon; he or she will only hurt themselves and those around them.
Source from: investopedia.com
1) Investing in stocks is just like gambling.
This reasoning causes many people to shy away from the stock market. To understand why investing in stocks is inherently different from gambling, we need to review what it means to buy stocks. A share of common stock is ownership in a company. It entitles the holder to a claim on assets as well as a fraction of the profits that the company generates. Too often, investors think of shares as simply a trading vehicle, and they forget that stock represents the ownership of a company.
In the stock market, investors are constantly trying to assess the profit that will be left over for shareholders. This is why stock prices fluctuate. The outlook for business conditions is always changing, and so are the future earnings of a company.
Assessing the value of a company isn't an easy practice. There are so many variables involved that the short-term price movements appear to be random (academics call this the Random Walk Theory); however, over the long term, a company is only worth the present value of the profits it will make. In the short term a company can survive without profits because of the expectations of future earnings, but no company can fool investors forever - eventually a company's stock price can be expected to show the true value of the firm.
Gambling, on the contrary, is a zero-sum game. It merely takes money from a loser and gives it to a winner. No value is ever created. By investing, we increase the overall wealth of an economy. As companies compete, they increase productivity and develop products that can make our lives better. Don't confuse investing and creating wealth with gambling's zero-sum game.
2) The stock market is an exclusive club in which only brokers and rich people make money.
Many market advisors claim to be able to call the markets' every turn. The fact is that almost every study done on this topic has proven that these claims are false. Most market prognosticators are notoriously inaccurate; furthermore, the advent of the internet has made the market much more open to the public than ever before. All the data and research tools previously available only to brokerages are now there for individuals to use.
Actually, individuals have an advantage over institutional investors because individuals can afford to be long-term oriented. The big money managers are under extreme pressure to get high returns every quarter. Their performance is often so scrutinized that they can't invest in opportunities that take some time to develop. Individuals have the ability to look beyond temporary downturns in favor of a long-term outlook.
3) Fallen angels will all go back up, eventually.
Whatever the reason for this myth's appeal, nothing is more destructive to amateur investors than thinking that a stock trading near a 52-week low is a good buy. Think of this in terms of the old Wall Street adage, "Those who try to catch a falling knife only get hurt."
Suppose you are looking at two stocks:
XYZ made an all time high last year around $50 but has since fallen to $10 per share.
ABC is a smaller company but has recently gone from $5 to $10 per share.
Which stock would you buy? Believe it or not, all things being equal, a majority of investors choose the stock that has fallen from $50 because they believe that it will eventually make it back up to those levels again. Thinking this way is a cardinal sin in investing! Price is only one part of the investing equation (which is different from trading, whch uses technical analysis). The goal is to buy good companies at a reasonable price. Buying companies solely because their market price has fallen will get you nowhere. Make sure you don't confuse this practice with value investing, which is buying high-quality companies that are undervalued by the market.
Below is a chart of Nortel's decline. Imagine how much money you would have lost had you bought Nortel just because it kept on hitting new lows!
Actually, individuals have an advantage over institutional investors because individuals can afford to be long-term oriented. The big money managers are under extreme pressure to get high returns every quarter. Their performance is often so scrutinized that they can't invest in opportunities that take some time to develop. Individuals have the ability to look beyond temporary downturns in favor of a long-term outlook.
3) Fallen angels will all go back up, eventually.
Whatever the reason for this myth's appeal, nothing is more destructive to amateur investors than thinking that a stock trading near a 52-week low is a good buy. Think of this in terms of the old Wall Street adage, "Those who try to catch a falling knife only get hurt."
Suppose you are looking at two stocks:
XYZ made an all time high last year around $50 but has since fallen to $10 per share.
ABC is a smaller company but has recently gone from $5 to $10 per share.
Which stock would you buy? Believe it or not, all things being equal, a majority of investors choose the stock that has fallen from $50 because they believe that it will eventually make it back up to those levels again. Thinking this way is a cardinal sin in investing! Price is only one part of the investing equation (which is different from trading, whch uses technical analysis). The goal is to buy good companies at a reasonable price. Buying companies solely because their market price has fallen will get you nowhere. Make sure you don't confuse this practice with value investing, which is buying high-quality companies that are undervalued by the market.
Below is a chart of Nortel's decline. Imagine how much money you would have lost had you bought Nortel just because it kept on hitting new lows!
4) Stocks that go up must come down.
The laws of physics do not apply in the stock market. There is no gravitational force that pulls stocks back to even. Over ten years ago, Berkshire Hathaway's stock price went from $6,000 to $10,000 per share in a little more than a year. Had you thought that this stock was going to return to its lower initial position, you would have missed out on the subsequent rise to $70,000 per share over the following six years.
The laws of physics do not apply in the stock market. There is no gravitational force that pulls stocks back to even. Over ten years ago, Berkshire Hathaway's stock price went from $6,000 to $10,000 per share in a little more than a year. Had you thought that this stock was going to return to its lower initial position, you would have missed out on the subsequent rise to $70,000 per share over the following six years.
Below is a chart of Wal-Mart from 1997 to 2000. We've circled every time the stock chart hit resistance to reaching a new high. Those investors who were waiting for the stock to come back to earth would missed out on a return of 500% or more. What's behind the stock? It's the company! Wal-Mart is another example of an excellent company that has dominated its industry by being innovative and creating value for both shareholders and customers.
We're not trying to tell you that stocks never undergo a correction. The point is that the stock price is a reflection of the company. If you find a great firm run by excellent managers, there is no reason the stock won't keep on going up.
5) Having just a little knowledge, because it is better than none, is enough to invest in the stock market.
Knowing something is generally better than nothing, but it is crucial in the stock market that individual investors have a clear understanding of what they are doing with their money. It's those investors who really do their homework that succeed.
Don't fret, if you don't have the time to fully understand what to do with your money, then having an advisor is not a bad thing. The cost of investing in something that you do not fully understand far outweighs the cost of using an investment advisor.
Conclusion
Forgive us for ending with more investing clichés, but there is another old adage that is very much worth repeating: "What's obvious is obviously wrong." This means that knowing a little bit will only have you following the crowd like a lemming. Like anything worth anything, successful investing takes hard work and effort. A partially informed investor is about as effective as a partially informed surgeon; he or she will only hurt themselves and those around them.
Source from: investopedia.com
2009-03-10
Stocks Basics(3): How Stocks Trade
Most stocks are traded on exchanges, which are places where buyers and sellers meet and decide on a price. Some exchanges are physical locations where transactions are carried out on a trading floor. You've probably seen pictures of a trading floor, in which traders are wildly throwing their arms up, waving, yelling, and signaling to each other. The other type of exchange is virtual, composed of a network of computers where trades are made electronically.
The purpose of a stock market is to facilitate the exchange of securities between buyers and sellers, reducing the risks of investing. Just imagine how difficult it would be to sell shares if you had to call around the neighborhood trying to find a buyer. Really, a stock market is nothing more than a super-sophisticated farmers' market linking buyers and sellers.
Before we go on, we should distinguish between the primary market and the secondary market. The primary market is where securities are created (by means of an IPO) while, in the secondary market, investors trade previously-issued securities without the involvement of the issuing-companies. The secondary market is what people are referring to when they talk about the stock market. It is important to understand that the trading of a company's stock does not directly involve that company.
The New York Stock Exchange
The most prestigious exchange in the world is the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE). The "Big Board" was founded over 200 years ago in 1792 with the signing of the Buttonwood Agreement by 24 New York City stockbrokers and merchants. Currently the NYSE, with stocks like General Electric, McDonald's, Citigroup, Coca-Cola, Gillette and Wal-mart, is the market of choice for the largest companies in America.
The NYSE is the first type of exchange (as we referred to above), where much of the trading is done face-to-face on a trading floor. This is also referred to as a listed exchange. Orders come in through brokerage firms that are members of the exchange and flow down to floor brokers who go to a specific spot on the floor where the stock trades. At this location, known as the trading post, there is a specific person known as the specialist whose job is to match buyers and sellers. Prices are determined using an auction method: the current price is the highest amount any buyer is willing to pay and the lowest price at which someone is willing to sell. Once a trade has been made, the details are sent back to the brokerage firm, who then notifies the investor who placed the order. Although there is human contact in this process, don't think that the NYSE is still in the stone age: computers play a huge role in the process.
The Nasdaq
The second type of exchange is the virtual sort called an over-the-counter (OTC) market, of which the Nasdaq is the most popular. These markets have no central location or floor brokers whatsoever. Trading is done through a computer and telecommunications network of dealers. It used to be that the largest companies were listed only on the NYSE while all other second tier stocks traded on the other exchanges. The tech boom of the late '90s changed all this; now the Nasdaq is home to several big technology companies such as Microsoft, Cisco, Intel, Dell and Oracle. This has resulted in the Nasdaq becoming a serious competitor to the NYSE.
On the Nasdaq brokerages act as market makers for various stocks. A market maker provides continuous bid and ask prices within a prescribed percentage spread for shares for which they are designated to make a market. They may match up buyers and sellers directly but usually they will maintain an inventory of shares to meet demands of investors.
Other Exchanges
The third largest exchange in the U.S. is the American Stock Exchange (AMEX). The AMEX used to be an alternative to the NYSE, but that role has since been filled by the Nasdaq. In fact, the National Association of Securities Dealers (NASD), which is the parent of Nasdaq, bought the AMEX in 1998. Almost all trading now on the AMEX is in small-cap stocks and derivatives.
There are many stock exchanges located in just about every country around the world. American markets are undoubtedly the largest, but they still represent only a fraction of total investment around the globe. The two other main financial hubs are London, home of the London Stock Exchange, and Hong Kong, home of the Hong Kong Stock Exchange. The last place worth mentioning is the over-the-counter bulletin board (OTCBB). The Nasdaq is an over-the-counter market, but the term commonly refers to small public companies that don’t meet the listing requirements of any of the regulated markets, including the Nasdaq. The OTCBB is home to penny stocks because there is little to no regulation. This makes investing in an OTCBB stock very risky.
Source from: investopedia.com
The purpose of a stock market is to facilitate the exchange of securities between buyers and sellers, reducing the risks of investing. Just imagine how difficult it would be to sell shares if you had to call around the neighborhood trying to find a buyer. Really, a stock market is nothing more than a super-sophisticated farmers' market linking buyers and sellers.
Before we go on, we should distinguish between the primary market and the secondary market. The primary market is where securities are created (by means of an IPO) while, in the secondary market, investors trade previously-issued securities without the involvement of the issuing-companies. The secondary market is what people are referring to when they talk about the stock market. It is important to understand that the trading of a company's stock does not directly involve that company.
The New York Stock Exchange
The most prestigious exchange in the world is the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE). The "Big Board" was founded over 200 years ago in 1792 with the signing of the Buttonwood Agreement by 24 New York City stockbrokers and merchants. Currently the NYSE, with stocks like General Electric, McDonald's, Citigroup, Coca-Cola, Gillette and Wal-mart, is the market of choice for the largest companies in America.
The NYSE is the first type of exchange (as we referred to above), where much of the trading is done face-to-face on a trading floor. This is also referred to as a listed exchange. Orders come in through brokerage firms that are members of the exchange and flow down to floor brokers who go to a specific spot on the floor where the stock trades. At this location, known as the trading post, there is a specific person known as the specialist whose job is to match buyers and sellers. Prices are determined using an auction method: the current price is the highest amount any buyer is willing to pay and the lowest price at which someone is willing to sell. Once a trade has been made, the details are sent back to the brokerage firm, who then notifies the investor who placed the order. Although there is human contact in this process, don't think that the NYSE is still in the stone age: computers play a huge role in the process.
The Nasdaq
The second type of exchange is the virtual sort called an over-the-counter (OTC) market, of which the Nasdaq is the most popular. These markets have no central location or floor brokers whatsoever. Trading is done through a computer and telecommunications network of dealers. It used to be that the largest companies were listed only on the NYSE while all other second tier stocks traded on the other exchanges. The tech boom of the late '90s changed all this; now the Nasdaq is home to several big technology companies such as Microsoft, Cisco, Intel, Dell and Oracle. This has resulted in the Nasdaq becoming a serious competitor to the NYSE.
On the Nasdaq brokerages act as market makers for various stocks. A market maker provides continuous bid and ask prices within a prescribed percentage spread for shares for which they are designated to make a market. They may match up buyers and sellers directly but usually they will maintain an inventory of shares to meet demands of investors.
Other Exchanges
The third largest exchange in the U.S. is the American Stock Exchange (AMEX). The AMEX used to be an alternative to the NYSE, but that role has since been filled by the Nasdaq. In fact, the National Association of Securities Dealers (NASD), which is the parent of Nasdaq, bought the AMEX in 1998. Almost all trading now on the AMEX is in small-cap stocks and derivatives.
There are many stock exchanges located in just about every country around the world. American markets are undoubtedly the largest, but they still represent only a fraction of total investment around the globe. The two other main financial hubs are London, home of the London Stock Exchange, and Hong Kong, home of the Hong Kong Stock Exchange. The last place worth mentioning is the over-the-counter bulletin board (OTCBB). The Nasdaq is an over-the-counter market, but the term commonly refers to small public companies that don’t meet the listing requirements of any of the regulated markets, including the Nasdaq. The OTCBB is home to penny stocks because there is little to no regulation. This makes investing in an OTCBB stock very risky.
Source from: investopedia.com
2009-03-04
Interesting Contradictions in investing
While investing, investor may hear different voices, confused? Here we come to the topic--- Contradictions in investing. An important fact about investing is that there are no indisputable laws, nor is there one correct way to go about it. Furthermore, within the vast array of different investing styles and strategies, it’s kind of funny that two opposite approaches may both be successful at the same time.
One explanation for the appearance of contradictions in investing is that economics and finance are social (or soft) sciences. In a hard science, like physics or chemistry, there are precise measurements and well-defined laws that can be replicated and demonstrated time and time again in experiments. In a social science, it's impossible to "prove" anything. People can develop theories and models of how the economy works, but they can't put an economy into a lab and perform experiments on it.
In fact, humans, the main subject of the study of the social sciences are unreliable and unpredictable by nature. Just as it is difficult for a psychologist to predict with 100% certainty how a single human mind will react to a particular circumstance, it is difficult for a financial analyst to predict with 100% certainty how the market (a large group of humans) will react to certain news about a company. Humans are emotional, and as much as we'd like to think we are rational, much of the time our actions prove otherwise.
Economists, academics, research analysts, fund managers and individual investors often have different and even conflicting theories about why the market works the way it does. Keep in mind that these theories are really nothing more than opinions. Some opinions might be better thought out than others, but at the end of the day, they are still just opinions.
Take the following example of how contradictions play out in the markets:
Sally believes that the key to investing is to buy small companies that are poised to grow at extremely high rates. Sally is therefore always watching for the newest, most cutting-edge technology, and typically invests in technology and biotech firms, which sometimes aren't even making a profit. Sally doesn't mind because these companies have huge potential.
John isn't ready to go spending his hard-earned dollars on what he sees as an unproven concept. He likes to see firms that have a solid track record and he believes that the key to investing is to buy good companies that are selling at "cheap" prices. The ideal investment for John is a mature company that pays out a large dividend, which he feels has high-quality management that will continue to deliver excellent returns to shareholders year after year.
So, which investor is superior?
The answer is neither. Sally and John have totally different investing strategies, but there is no reason why they can't both be successful. There are plenty of stable companies out there for John, just as there are always entrepreneurs creating new companies that would attract Sally. The approaches we described here are those of the two most common investing strategies. In investing lingo, Sally is a growth investor and John is a value investor.
Although these theories appear to contradict one another, each strategy has its merits and may have aspects that are suitable for certain investors. Your goal is to be informed enough to understand and analyze what you hear. Then you can decide which theories fit with your investing personality.
One explanation for the appearance of contradictions in investing is that economics and finance are social (or soft) sciences. In a hard science, like physics or chemistry, there are precise measurements and well-defined laws that can be replicated and demonstrated time and time again in experiments. In a social science, it's impossible to "prove" anything. People can develop theories and models of how the economy works, but they can't put an economy into a lab and perform experiments on it.
In fact, humans, the main subject of the study of the social sciences are unreliable and unpredictable by nature. Just as it is difficult for a psychologist to predict with 100% certainty how a single human mind will react to a particular circumstance, it is difficult for a financial analyst to predict with 100% certainty how the market (a large group of humans) will react to certain news about a company. Humans are emotional, and as much as we'd like to think we are rational, much of the time our actions prove otherwise.
Economists, academics, research analysts, fund managers and individual investors often have different and even conflicting theories about why the market works the way it does. Keep in mind that these theories are really nothing more than opinions. Some opinions might be better thought out than others, but at the end of the day, they are still just opinions.
Take the following example of how contradictions play out in the markets:
Sally believes that the key to investing is to buy small companies that are poised to grow at extremely high rates. Sally is therefore always watching for the newest, most cutting-edge technology, and typically invests in technology and biotech firms, which sometimes aren't even making a profit. Sally doesn't mind because these companies have huge potential.
John isn't ready to go spending his hard-earned dollars on what he sees as an unproven concept. He likes to see firms that have a solid track record and he believes that the key to investing is to buy good companies that are selling at "cheap" prices. The ideal investment for John is a mature company that pays out a large dividend, which he feels has high-quality management that will continue to deliver excellent returns to shareholders year after year.
So, which investor is superior?
The answer is neither. Sally and John have totally different investing strategies, but there is no reason why they can't both be successful. There are plenty of stable companies out there for John, just as there are always entrepreneurs creating new companies that would attract Sally. The approaches we described here are those of the two most common investing strategies. In investing lingo, Sally is a growth investor and John is a value investor.
Although these theories appear to contradict one another, each strategy has its merits and may have aspects that are suitable for certain investors. Your goal is to be informed enough to understand and analyze what you hear. Then you can decide which theories fit with your investing personality.
Subscribe to:
Posts (Atom)
Posts
